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lunedì 4 maggio 2020

Il consumo di gas in Italia ad Aprile 2020 a -13,9, produzione nazionale, -17,6%





Nel quarto mese del 2020 si registra un minor consumo di gas in Italia-13,9% rispetto allo stesso mese dell'anno passato,  confermando il calo per il terzo mese consecutivo secondo  i dati forniti puntualmente dalla Snam e pubblicati nel proprio sito web.

Utilizzando questi dati della Snam dell'ultimo mese, ancora ufficiosi, siamo in grado di realizzare i nostri consueti grafici, confrontando i consumi con quelli dei mesi e degli anni precedenti, ufficiali e definitivi, forniti dal Ministero dello Sviluppo Economico. Comunque i dati Snam, per esperienza, differiranno poco da quelli che il Ministero fornirà tra qualche settimana, discostandosi di poco o nulla, forse appena qualche decimale di percento al massimo. Dati e grafici che prendono in esame gli ultimi 15 anni, dati che ci permetteranno di fare autonomamente le nostre valutazioni sull'attuale situazione. 


I nostri grafici

I grafici, da noi realizzati con i dati ufficiali del Ministero e gli ultimi della Snam provvisori del mese appena trascorso, servono per dare una visione d'insieme, con una sola occhiata, della situazione al di là delle parole e delle interpretazioni più o meno puntuali.

Il primo grafico mostra l'andamento dei mesi suddivisi per anno solare dal Gennaio 2006 ad oggi. Il consumo di gas di Aprile 2020, come si è detto, scende del 13,9% rispetto allo stesso mese dell'anno passato  ovvero quantitativamente abbiamo  messo in rete e l'bruciato 4210,7 milioni di m3 Standard (dato provvisorio Snam) contro i  5.536 milioni di metri cubi (dato ufficiale del Ministero) dello stesso mese del 2019. 


Il grafico successivo delle percentuali mette in luce la predominanza del segno negativo dei mesi dal 2012 fino al 2014 e il segno positivo dal 2015 con una prevalenza di linee blu positive interrotte saltuariamente mentre torna a scendere sotto lo zero negli ultimi mesi del 2018 per poi mostrare segni positivi per 7 mesi consecutivi col ritorno al negativo negli ultimi 6 mesi del 2019.



Il grafico sottostante dà la misura della quantità di gas consumato che è la somma dei 12 mesi precedenti partendo a ritroso dalla data dell'ultimo rilevamento. E' evidente sia il crollo costante dal 2007 sia una risalita costante a partire dalla fine del 2014 e le impennate dei mesi a cavallo 2016/2017,  per poi risalire e ridiscendere recentemente.



Vediamo adesso la produzione nazionale di gas .

Più che continuare la tendenza alla diminuzione della produzione nazionale a Aprile 2019 possiamo definirlo crollo continuo, con l'ennesimo segno negativo, - 17,6% circa rispetto allo stesso mese del 2019 con  321,8 milioni di metri cubi (dato provvisorio).



La linea tendenziale va verso il basso, come è ulteriormente evidenziato dal grafico qui sotto riportato relativo alla quantità di gas prodotto con la somma nei 12 mesi precedenti partendo a ritroso dalla data dell'ultima rilevazione, inesorabilmente cala.



Vedremo prossimamente se i consumi generali sono legati a una richiesta superiore da parte del settore  dell'industria o  quello delle centrali a turbogas per la generazione dell'energia elettrica. Lo vedremo con un Post dedicato.

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